since my last post about the leak, nothing has changed in the leakiness.
but everything has changed in the solution.
i tried making a plastic patch in the ceiling with a hole for the water to drain out.
unfortunately, the hole was too small and the plastic collapsed from the weight of the undrained water.
i tried hanging something in the ceiling to catch the drips - no go.
then, i was filling the tub for sam and had an inspiration.
here is a picture of our bathroom pre-inspiration, with the leak running all over the toilet and the floor.
and this is the bathroom post-inspiration. ta-dah! (there's enough room under the shower curtain to sit without anything bonking your head. i'm just not that great at drawing perspective.)